Sharp investment – Sharp TH http://sharp-th.com/ Thu, 29 Sep 2022 10:04:37 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.9.3 https://sharp-th.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/icon-2021-07-02T222002.614-150x150.png Sharp investment – Sharp TH http://sharp-th.com/ 32 32 The Canadian dollar slides, the GDP then https://sharp-th.com/the-canadian-dollar-slides-the-gdp-then/ Thu, 29 Sep 2022 09:51:13 +0000 https://sharp-th.com/the-canadian-dollar-slides-the-gdp-then/ Posted 6 minutes ago Share the impression The Canadian dollar continues to show high volatility this week. USD/CAD jumped 0.65% today and is trading at 1.3693. We are seeing significant volatility in the currency markets this week, with lower risk appetite propelling the US Dollar higher. The Canadian dollar was hit by the double whammy […]]]>

The Canadian dollar continues to show high volatility this week. USD/CAD jumped 0.65% today and is trading at 1.3693.

We are seeing significant volatility in the currency markets this week, with lower risk appetite propelling the US Dollar higher. The Canadian dollar was hit by the double whammy of an aggressive Federal Reserve and an escalating war in Ukraine which dampened risk appetite. September was a miserable month for the Canadian dollar, with USD/CAD climbing 4.5%.

There are other headwinds for the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada led the way with a rapid tightening pace, raising its key rate to 3.25%. The Federal Reserve has caught up with last week’s 0.75% rise and markets are pricing in a higher terminal rate for the US than for Canada (4.60% vs. 4.10%). This means the Canadian dollar will not benefit from a higher interest rate differential and Canadian bond yields have fallen below US Treasuries. In addition, Canada is a major oil exporter and the fall in the price of oil is weighing on the Canadian dollar. We are already witnessing a sharp drop in long positions on the Canadian dollar and this trend could continue.

Markets brace for lower GDP

Canada releases the July GDP report later today. The economy shows little movement and gained a negligible 0.1% gain in June. The consensus for July is a decline of 0.1%. A steeper-than-expected decline could sour investors on the Canadian economy and prolong the Canadian dollar’s losses.

.

USD/CAD technical

  • The USD is testing resistance at 1.3725. The next resistance line is 1.3862
  • There is support at 1.3477 and 1.3340

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution for buying or selling securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for everyone. You could lose all your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

A highly experienced financial market analyst specializing in fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a wide range of markets including forex, stocks and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications, including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

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Live updates: Labor outlines plans for state-owned clean energy company https://sharp-th.com/live-updates-labor-outlines-plans-for-state-owned-clean-energy-company/ Tue, 27 Sep 2022 14:18:31 +0000 https://sharp-th.com/live-updates-labor-outlines-plans-for-state-owned-clean-energy-company/ A Labor government would aim to create a public energy group in its first year in office that would seek to transform the UK into a clean energy ‘superpower’, the Opposition Leader has said. “A new business taking advantage of the opportunities of clean UK energy and because it’s good for jobs, because it’s good […]]]>

A Labor government would aim to create a public energy group in its first year in office that would seek to transform the UK into a clean energy ‘superpower’, the Opposition Leader has said.

“A new business taking advantage of the opportunities of clean UK energy and because it’s good for jobs, because it’s good for growth, because it’s good for energy independence from -live tyrants like [President Vladimir] Putin,” Sir Keir Starmer said on Tuesday.

Labour’s green prosperity plan, which “would double Britain’s onshore wind capacity, triple solar power, quadruple offshore wind, invest in tidal power, hydrogen and nuclear”, aims to 100% clean energy goal by 2030.

Starmer told party members at the conference in Liverpool that a Labor government would build a “fairer and greener” Britain. Doing so, he said, would help tackle the climate crisis head-on and create job opportunities across the country.

Working with Ed Miliband, the shadow secretary of state for climate change and net zero, Starmer said his government would ensure its “energy revolution” is felt across the country.

“Let’s have clean hydrogen power in South Yorkshire, East England, across the river in the Wirral,” he said. “Offshore wind in Scotland, Teesside, East and North Yorkshire. Solar power is growing in rural communities, across the South East, South West and Midlands.

The plan could result in the “greatest partnership between government, business and communities this country has ever seen”, he said.

“It will mean new jobs – over a million new jobs, training for plumbers, electricians, engineers, software designers, technicians, builders,” he said. “And it will all start within the first 100 days of a new Labor government.”

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Cardinals are the ‘sharp’ side Saturday Vs. Dodgers in Los Angeles – OutKick https://sharp-th.com/cardinals-are-the-sharp-side-saturday-vs-dodgers-in-los-angeles-outkick/ Sat, 24 Sep 2022 18:00:52 +0000 https://sharp-th.com/cardinals-are-the-sharp-side-saturday-vs-dodgers-in-los-angeles-outkick/ Let’s go back and BET the ST. CARDINAL LOUIS (+145) at DraftKings Sportsbook to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers (-175) for a second straight game at Dodger Stadium on Saturday. We follow roughly the same logic as the Cardinals-Dodgers handicap on Friday, which collected a nice ticket. Moneyline (ML): CARDINAL +145Dodgers-170 Run Line: Cardinals +1.5 […]]]>

Let’s go back and BET the ST. CARDINAL LOUIS (+145) at DraftKings Sportsbook to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers (-175) for a second straight game at Dodger Stadium on Saturday. We follow roughly the same logic as the Cardinals-Dodgers handicap on Friday, which collected a nice ticket.

  • Moneyline (ML): CARDINAL +145Dodgers-170
  • Run Line: Cardinals +1.5 (-140), Dodgers -1.5 (+120)
  • Total (O/U) — 7.5 — O: -110, U: -110

Starters

Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. (Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
Crew Cardinals (89-63) Dodgers (104-47)
Launcher HPL Jordan Montgomery HPL Clayton Kershaw
Registration 8-5 9-3
TIME 3.26 2.39
FIP 3.47 2.50
K% 22.0% 27.5%
BB% 5.0% 4.5%
HR/9 1.0 0.7
Last start L, 3-0, vs Reds: 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 9 K, 2 BB on 09/18 W, 5-2, against D-Backs: 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 10 K, 0 BB on 9/19

Cardinals Rake Lefty Pitching

The St. Louis lineup ranks atop most advanced hitting categories against lefties such as wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and BB/K rate, per FanGraphs. Certainly, Kershaw is one of the best starters of his generation.

However, it’s been profitable to wipe out Kershaw and the Dodgers in similar situations recently. LA is 5-7 as favorites of -170 ML or less with -28.5% return on investment (ROI).

Plus, with Friday’s series opener, the Cardinals are now the most profitable team in baseball against left-handed starters with a +25.9% ROI.

‘RLM’ to St. Louis

RLM stands for “Reverse Line Movement”. That applies to Saturday’s Cardinals-Dodgers meeting. DraftKings reports that about 80% of the action is in Los Angeles, but the Dodgers’ ML is getting cheaper, per VSIN. It’s suspicious, right? It looks a bit like a trap that lowers the ML of World Series favorites.

The vibes are high for St. Louis after future Hall of Famer Albert Pujol hit his 699th and 700th career home runs on Friday. The Cardinals have the second best record in the NL over the last 30 games (19-11) and their magic number to clinch the NL Central is 3.5.

Behind the Dodgers, of course. Either way, St. Louis and Los Angeles are moving in the same direction, but the ST. CARDINAL LOUIS (+145) get a great price at DraftKings Sportsbook.

DraftKings Sportsbook odds as of Saturday, September 24 at 1:10 p.m. ET

FOLLOW GEOFF ON TWITTER: @Geoffery_Clark

Listen to the ‘OutKick Paris with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.


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Rupee drops to new low on relentless dollar strength after Fed hike https://sharp-th.com/rupee-drops-to-new-low-on-relentless-dollar-strength-after-fed-hike/ Fri, 23 Sep 2022 04:31:00 +0000 https://sharp-th.com/rupee-drops-to-new-low-on-relentless-dollar-strength-after-fed-hike/ The rupee depreciated to a new low against the US dollar on Friday as sentiment for the national currency remained weak against a rapidly strengthening greenback. The dollar surged globally over the past two days as the Federal Reserve signaled a longer-than-expected tightening cycle. The rupiah touched a new intraday low of 81.25 per […]]]>

The rupee depreciated to a new low against the US dollar on Friday as sentiment for the national currency remained weak against a rapidly strengthening greenback. The dollar surged globally over the past two days as the Federal Reserve signaled a longer-than-expected tightening cycle.

The rupiah touched a new intraday low of 81.25 per US dollar during the first minutes of trading on Friday. As of 09:25 IST, the local currency was trading at 81.13. The rupee had plunged 1.1% against the dollar on Thursday, closing at a record high of 80.87 to the dollar.

A lack of significant dollar selling by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) despite a sharp drop in the rupee on Wednesday also made traders jittery as they waited for clues on the central bank’s future intervention strategy, it said. said the dealers.

So far in 2022, the national currency has depreciated 8.5% against the US dollar. The US dollar index, which has gained more than 16% so far in 2022, was last at 111.41 from 111.16 at 3:30 p.m. IST Thursday.

Government bonds also suffered steep losses from Wednesday, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond last trading down 7 basis points at 7.38%. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. The tightening of bond yields was accompanied by a rise in US Treasury yields.

“UST 10-year yields continue to rise after hawkish comments from the Fed. The BoE, SNB and Norway are also raising rates. USD/CNH continues to be volatile but only drifts higher, which also adds to the pressure on the Rupee. According to the charts, DXY can test 112.40 levels. For USD/INR, 80.40 now becomes a base while 81.40 levels can be tested,” said Vice President of Shinhan Bank (Global Trading Center), Kunal Sodhani.

Prior to Thursday’s sharp weakness, the rupiah ranked among the best performers among emerging market currencies on the back of a pickup in foreign equity investment, lower crude oil prices and aggressive government intervention. the RBI in the market.

However, since Thursday, the rupiah has suffered more than its emerging market counterparts, suggesting that the central bank was letting the currency adjust to the new reality of US interest rates staying higher for longer. Following market interventions since late February, the RBI’s foreign exchange reserves are currently at a two-year low of around $550 billion.

“The absence of RBI was felt yesterday as the Rupee independently followed global factors to reach its fair value. One of the reasons why RBI could not save the currency’s slide was liquidity insufficient of the banking system which is currently in deficit,” wrote CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari.

“RBI’s intervention in the cash market could make the situation worse for liquidity in the banking system as short-term interest rates rise,” he wrote. CR Forex sees the Rupee weakening to 81.80-82.00 per dollar in the short term.

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Gold climbs from lowest price since April 2020 as Russia escalates war in Ukraine https://sharp-th.com/gold-climbs-from-lowest-price-since-april-2020-as-russia-escalates-war-in-ukraine/ Wed, 21 Sep 2022 13:55:00 +0000 https://sharp-th.com/gold-climbs-from-lowest-price-since-april-2020-as-russia-escalates-war-in-ukraine/ By Myra P. Saefong and William Watts Gold found minimal safe-haven buying interest on Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered reservists to mobilize and made remarks seen as a threat to use nuclear weapons, while that he was intensifying the war in Ukraine. But the rise remained limited as investors awaited the conclusion of […]]]>

By Myra P. Saefong and William Watts

Gold found minimal safe-haven buying interest on Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered reservists to mobilize and made remarks seen as a threat to use nuclear weapons, while that he was intensifying the war in Ukraine.

But the rise remained limited as investors awaited the conclusion of a Federal Reserve policy meeting that is expected to see interest rates rise another 75 basis points, or 0.75 percentage points.

price action

Market factors

Putin ordered a partial mobilization of the reserves and warned the West that he was not bluffing by using “all the instruments of the [Russia’s] provision” to protect Russian territory, in what was seen as a veiled reference to Russia’s nuclear capability.

“President Putin’s partial mobilization announcement rocked markets this morning as investors expected the main event to focus on [Wednesday’s] FOMC update,” said William Masters, senior trader at Saxo Markets UK. Gold and the dollar rallied on a flight to heaven, he said.

Gold’s gains, however, were relatively modest. A stronger dollar weighed on commodity prices, along with a strong upward push in Treasury yields. A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in unity more expensive for users of other currencies, while higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-performing assets.

See: 4 things to watch when the Fed makes its interest rate decision

“Most likely, investors are holding back a significant adjustment in their positions ahead of the outcome of the Fed meeting, which will be followed tomorrow by decisions from the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank,” said Raffi Boyadjian, Head of Investments. analyst at XM, in email comments. “So unless there are new developments in Ukraine, geopolitics will likely play second fiddle to Fed policy.”

The Fed will announce its monetary policy decision at 2 p.m. Eastern Time, about half an hour after gold futures settle for the day’s session.

Gold futures had settled on Tuesday at their lowest since April 2020, under pressure from “aggression by the Fed, as well as other central banks including the Bank of England and more recently the European Central Bank and [Sweden’s] Riksbank,” Rupert Rowling, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said in market commentary.

To put the current scenario into context, the expected outcome of a third consecutive 75 basis point hike by the Fed would be seen as the conservative option when just a few months ago it would have been the one of the biggest hikes in the history of the U.S. central bank,” he said. For now, “gold languishes comfortably below $1,700 an ounce and it’s hard to see where the near-term drivers will come from to push it up significantly.”

–Associated Press contributed to this article.

Hear Ray Dalio at the Best New Ideas in Money Festival on September 21-22 in New York City. The hedge fund pioneer has a strong opinion on the direction the economy is taking.

-Myra P. Saefong

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswire

09-21-22 0955ET

Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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REITs and other ‘well-funded’ qualified nursing investors rejoice as buyer’s market returns https://sharp-th.com/reits-and-other-well-funded-qualified-nursing-investors-rejoice-as-buyers-market-returns/ Mon, 19 Sep 2022 21:39:30 +0000 https://sharp-th.com/reits-and-other-well-funded-qualified-nursing-investors-rejoice-as-buyers-market-returns/ Skilled nursing lenders are becoming more selective with their financing, adopting stricter underwriting standards while regulatory uncertainties and reimbursement changes leave investors more cautious. There is also a more definite shift towards a buyers’ market as more deals return to the sector, according to industry analysts. Many potential deals have stalled over the past year […]]]>

Skilled nursing lenders are becoming more selective with their financing, adopting stricter underwriting standards while regulatory uncertainties and reimbursement changes leave investors more cautious.

There is also a more definite shift towards a buyers’ market as more deals return to the sector, according to industry analysts. Many potential deals have stalled over the past year or so as underwriters and capital providers need additional collateral before closing a deal.

“This is good news for well-financed buyers, including [real estate investment trusts] to move from debt deals to real estate,” Stifel analysts said in a note released on Monday. “We could finally see more deals taken out based on the current yield.”

Stifel analysts heard from a wide range of qualified nursing and senior housing stakeholders at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC) Fall 2022 conference last week.

Despite concerns over the challenges facing the skilled nursing sector, some investors have not been shy about taking an interest in the industry.

Private buyers closed about $1 billion in skilled nursing deals in the second fiscal quarter of 2022, according to preliminary data from NIC MAP Vision.

Public REITs seem to be the sellers in the market right now, according to investors in the sector.

According to CIO and Co-Chairman Clint Malin, LTC Properties has specifically “recycled capital” from many of the former skilled nursing properties in its portfolio.

Still, Malin said REITs are “counter-cyclical” and as the sector reaches a new environment with rising interest rates, it could make them more competitive in the market to acquire additional assets.

The general mood in the space is ‘optimistic’, Stifel analysts said, as growth projections and yield expectations are reshaped into a more realistic outlook – after more than a year of inflation and doom. increase in the cost of debt.

A reshaped vision for the industry did not happen in 2021, Stifel analysts said.

Looking ahead to 2023, providers of capital should be more cautious while owners and operators take a more pragmatic approach. Stifel analysts believe the new outlook will help “tighten the gap” between asset prices and fundamentals.

Operators, among other space stakeholders, believe that a positive supply and demand backdrop will support occupancy growth at a faster rate than historic levels.

This despite the fact that staffing is always a “pain point” for operators. Many believe the cost of workforce growth has peaked as agency work declines and operators achieve more net hires, but there won’t be a ‘clear improvement’ anytime soon , Stifel analysts said.

“Employee poaching continues to be a thorny issue for all operators. Work culture and incentives play a big role in retaining workers, but caregivers and assembly line workers are themselves the biggest victims of inflation and need wages higher to support their families,” the analysts said. “Operators also need to better understand the needs and priorities of the current generation of workers.”

A scarcity of construction finance, why is scaling up operations more important given today’s ‘revenue boost’; and the need for more robust data analysis and sharing was also a priority for operators.

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Work Hard, Play Harder: Citigroup sent 27 lucky junior bankers to work on one of Spain’s best beaches https://sharp-th.com/work-hard-play-harder-citigroup-sent-27-lucky-junior-bankers-to-work-on-one-of-spains-best-beaches/ Sat, 17 Sep 2022 20:36:00 +0000 https://sharp-th.com/work-hard-play-harder-citigroup-sent-27-lucky-junior-bankers-to-work-on-one-of-spains-best-beaches/ By Barbara Kollmeyer and Steve Gelsi The new Malaga office is part of a series of employee-friendly moves at the bank Citigroup has significantly upped the ante when it comes to attracting young bankers to a competitive job market, assigning them to a two-year stint by the Spanish seaside. The Wall Street bank (C) has […]]]>

By Barbara Kollmeyer and Steve Gelsi

The new Malaga office is part of a series of employee-friendly moves at the bank

Citigroup has significantly upped the ante when it comes to attracting young bankers to a competitive job market, assigning them to a two-year stint by the Spanish seaside.

The Wall Street bank (C) has opened a new branch for junior investment bankers in Málaga, the capital of the province of the same name on the southern Mediterranean coast of Spain. Temperatures in the seaside town rarely drop below 38 F in winter or exceed 97 F in summer.

Citi received more than 3,000 applications from graduates of top universities in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Asia-Pacific region and Latin America. The 27 junior analysts chosen represent 22 nationalities and speak 15 different languages, including English, which will be the branch’s main language for doing business. After two years, they can apply to work elsewhere within the bank.

Most of the new recruits are between 22 and 26 years old, the oldest being 32; the team is made up of 59% men and 41% women. The group will work to deliver on Citi’s strategy of aligning resources with areas where it is seeing key growth: digital disruption, technology, health and wellness, sustainability revolution and energy transition .

“After considering separate locations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, it was decided that the new group would be located in Malaga for its proven ability to attract and retain talent internationally,” Citi said. in a press release. The office is located in the center of the city, which is one of the oldest in Spain, having been founded by the Phoenicians around 770 BC.

Related: More New York: People are trying to flee the Empire State for hotter destinations. here’s why

Like many Spanish cities, Málaga has an efficient public transport system, with a metro, buses and trains.

Manolo Falcó, global co-head of investment banking, told the Financial Times that it was not just a gimmick to attract young candidates. “We suffer from a lot of turnover like the rest of the industry, we are losing talent to private equity and technology, so we are eager to understand if we can stop this by providing a better work-life balance” , did he declare.

See also: JPMorgan executive sees about 50% chance of ‘mild’ recession, plans to hire laid-off bankers

A survey of 200 junior bankers by technology group UpSlide, provided to Financial News last month, found that 72% were willing to quit due to burnout. It comes a year after a group of disgruntled Goldman Sachs (GS) analysts claimed “inhumane” 100-hour working weeks in a PowerPoint presentation.

Entry-level salaries have reportedly soared 30% to $110,000 over the past year at many large companies as weekend work is curtailed and more vacations are handed out, according to Financial News.

Citi’s Malaga office is part of a series of employee-friendly moves at the bank under CEO Jane Fraser.

In 2021, Citigroup may have become the first major bank to embrace office flexibility.

Citi is also one of several major Wall Street banks to extend travel benefits to employees seeking abortions in other states following the June 2022 U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v.Wade, ending the constitutional right to abortion.

Despite measures to encourage investment bankers, talk of layoffs at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and other banks rose after a sharp drop in deals.

From the archives (July 2022): The sum also increases: Hemingway enthusiasts and other tourists in Spain encounter a rate of inflation significantly higher than that of the United States

-Barbara Kollmeyer

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswire

09-17-22 1636ET

Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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Stocks retreat after losses on Wall Street https://sharp-th.com/stocks-retreat-after-losses-on-wall-street/ Fri, 16 Sep 2022 05:49:59 +0000 https://sharp-th.com/stocks-retreat-after-losses-on-wall-street/ Asian Market Update: Stocks decline after losses on Wall St.; CN Markets Lower Despite Generally Better Data, Bond Yields; US stock FUTs extend declines, FedEx forecast weighs. General trend – Yuan the currency weakens to test the 7.00 level (first time since July 2020) [China papers are downplaying the concerns of CNY weakening past 7 […]]]>

Asian Market Update: Stocks decline after losses on Wall St.; CN Markets Lower Despite Generally Better Data, Bond Yields; US stock FUTs extend declines, FedEx forecast weighs.

General trend

Yuan the currency weakens to test the 7.00 level (first time since July 2020) [China papers are downplaying the concerns of CNY weakening past 7 against the USD].

– Will the PBOC cut prime lending rates next week amid better data and yuan weakness? [PBOC normally sets the LPRs around the 20th of the month (Tues)].

– USD trading is mixed.

– The 2-year UST yield prolongs the rise.

– AU and NZ yields also increase [analysts revise RBA and RBNZ rate forecasts].

– RBA Government Lowe said: Inflation can also come from profit margins; Rates are still too low right now; See some rate hikes in the coming months; At the next board meeting, we will discuss a rate increase of 25 basis points from 50 basis points.

– Delay in Australian stocks [Energy, REIT and Resources indices underperform].

– Shanghai property index lags amid weaker data [(CN) China  Aug YTD property investment Y/Y: -7.4% V -7.0%E].

– The Shanghai Financials index also falls [China said to order reduction in brokerage fees].

– UK retail sales expected later in the day.

Securities/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

The ASX 200 opened -0.3%.

(AU) RBA Gov Lowe: Well-anchored medium-term inflation expectations; Rate increases are larger and faster than expected; The board expects further increases will be needed to bring inflation back to target; not on a predefined path – testimony in parliament.

– (NZ) New Zealand manufacturing PMI in August: 54.9 vs. 53.5 previously (13th consecutive expansion).

– (NZ) New Zealand Aug Non-Resident Bond Holdings: 58.4% vs. 58.6% previously.

– (AU)NAB expects the RBA to hike rates by 50 basis points to 2.85% in October from 25 basis points previously.

– (NZ) ANZ Bank expects OCR to peak at 4.75% by May 2023.

Japan

Nikkei 225 opened -0.9%.

– (JP) The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is offering to buy 5 to 10 year JGBs at a fixed rate of 25 basis points; Opens a window to buy unlimited 10-year JGBs at 0.25% [as expected].

– (JP) Japan Fin Min Suzuki: if sudden movements of the yen exist, will take the necessary measures without excluding any option; Reiterating previous comments that sharp FX moves are undesirable, it is important that FX moves follow fundamentals.

– (JP) Japan to investigate global investment banks in structured bond crackdown – press.

Korea

Kospi opened -0.6%.

– (KR) Unemployment rate in August in South Korea: 2.5% against 3.0%e (the lowest since the data recorded in June 1999).

– (KR) South Korea Y/Y August Export Price Index: 13.4% vs. 16.3% prior; Y/Y import price index: 22.9% vs. 27.9% before.

– (KR) South Korea July Money supply M2 M/M: 0.3% vs. 0.3% before.

China/Hong Kong

Hang Seng opened -1.0%; Shanghai Composite opened -0.3%.

– (CN) The Chinese PBOC sets the reference rate for the yuan: 6.9305 against 6.9101 previously.

*(CN) New housing prices in August in China M/M: -0.3% V -0.1% before (12th consecutive drop); Y/Y: -1.3% V -0.9% forward.

– (CN) Said China’s local government finance companies have embarked on a land-buying spree – China Press.

– (CN) China Financial News: China’s LPR rate in September is unlikely to change.

– (CN) Chinese newspapers play down concerns about the CNY weakening beyond 7 against the USD.

– (CN) said China will test onshore USD/CNY trading extension from September 16 [Fri] – Hurry.

– (CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): sells CNY 2.0 billion in 7-day reverse repos against CNY 2.0 billion previously; Net CNY0B against Net CNY0B before.

(CN) Industrial production in August in China Y/Y: 4.2% V 3.8%E; YTD Y/Y: 3.6%V 3.6%E.

– (CN) Retail sales in August in China Y/Y: 5.4% V 3.2%E; YTD Y/Y: 0.5%V 0.2%E.

– (CN) China August fixed urban assets YTD Y/Y: 5.8% V 5.5%E.

(CN) August year-to-date residential property sales in China: -30.3% vs. -31.4% previously.

(CN) China August YTD real estate investment Y/Y: -7.4% V -7.0%E.

– (CN) Unemployment rate surveyed in August in China: 5.3% against 5.4%e.

– (CN) Chinese exchange regulator (SAFE): the CNY is performing much better than other currencies.

– (CN) An official from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS):: to coordinate economic development and control of COVID, will increase demand to keep the economy within a reasonable range.

– (CN) Some banks [including JPMorgan and ICBC Standard Bank] supposed to limit the financing of the Chinese metal – American financial press.

– (HK) Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) Chief Executive Officer Yue’s opening speech at the 2022 Treasury Markets Summit.

– (CN) Some banks [including JPMorgan and ICBC Standard Bank] supposed to limit the financing of the Chinese metal – American financial press.

– (CN) China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) is selling 3-month bills and 50-year bonds.

North America

– *(United States) Advance of retail sales in August M/M: +0.3% V -0.1%E; Retail sales (EX-AUTO) M/M: -0.3% V 0.0%E.

– (US) Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: 213K V 227KE; continuing claims: 1.403MV 1.48ME.

FDX Cut Q1 $3.44 vs $e5.06, Rev $23.2B vs $23.7B; Removes full-year earnings outlook, amid “global volume slowdown that accelerated in the final weeks of the quarter.”

– (US) Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow: cut Q3 GDP to 0.5% from 1.3% previously.

UBER Investigate Computer System Breach; Employees instructed not to use internal messaging service and other internal systems – US Press.

– * (US) President Biden announces tentative railroad labor deal [Sept 15th].

Europe

– (EU) EU’s Dombrovskis: Reiterates that sanctions against Russia will remain to exert pressure.

– (RU) Russia Dep PM Novak: I hope we can soon agree with China on gas supply through the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.

Levels starting at 1:20 a.m. ET

– Nikkei 225, -1%, ASX 200 -1.4%, Hang Seng -0.5%; Shanghai Composite -1.2%; Kospi -0.9%.

– S&P500 equity futures: -0.7%; Nasdaq100 -0.9%, Dax -0.9%; FTSE100 -0.3%.

– €1.0012-0.9986; JPY143.55-142.82; AU$0.6724-0.6684; NZ$0.5988-0.5954.

– Gold -0.3% at $1,672/oz; Crude Oil +0.2% to $85.30/brl; Flat copper at $3.4715/lb.

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Stocks are little changed as Wall Street tries to rally after the worst day since June 2020 https://sharp-th.com/stocks-are-little-changed-as-wall-street-tries-to-rally-after-the-worst-day-since-june-2020/ Wed, 14 Sep 2022 14:14:00 +0000 https://sharp-th.com/stocks-are-little-changed-as-wall-street-tries-to-rally-after-the-worst-day-since-june-2020/ Stocks swung between gains and losses on Wednesday as investors tried to regain their footing after the biggest one-day drop in more than two years. The Dow Industrial Average slipped 32 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 was flat and the Nasdaq Composite rose about 0.1%. Apple and Johnson & Johnson rose more than 1% […]]]>

Stocks swung between gains and losses on Wednesday as investors tried to regain their footing after the biggest one-day drop in more than two years.

The Dow Industrial Average slipped 32 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 was flat and the Nasdaq Composite rose about 0.1%.

Apple and Johnson & Johnson rose more than 1% to support the Dow Jones, but Honeywell and Boeing fell more than 1% each.

The Dow sank more than 1,200 points on Tuesday, or almost 4%, while the S&P 500 lost 4.3%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.2%. It was the biggest one-day drop for all three averages since June 2020.

The market moves came after August’s Consumer Price Index report showed headline inflation rose 0.1% on a monthly basis despite lower gasoline prices.

The hot inflation report left questions over whether stocks could return to their June lows or fall even further. It also sparked some fears that the Federal Reserve could potentially hike even more than the 75 basis points the markets are pricing.

“Tuesday’s selloff reminds us that a sustained recovery will likely require clear evidence that inflation is on a downtrend. With macroeconomic and political uncertainty elevated, we expect markets to remain volatile in coming months,” said Mark Haefele, CIO of UBS Global. Wealth Management, said in a note to clients.

All 30 Dow Jones stocks and S&P 500 sectors ended the session lower, dragged lower by communications services. The sector fell 5.6% and ended its worst day since February, led by shares of big tech names like Netflix and Meta Platforms, which fell around 7.8% and 9.4%, respectively.

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Guest Houses and the US Real Estate Market: What’s Happening? (NYSE: INVH) https://sharp-th.com/guest-houses-and-the-us-real-estate-market-whats-happening-nyse-invh/ Mon, 12 Sep 2022 21:52:00 +0000 https://sharp-th.com/guest-houses-and-the-us-real-estate-market-whats-happening-nyse-invh/ Kwarkot Investment thesis With lower real incomes and higher mortgage costs, the US housing market has started to show the first signs of weakness. In particular, the MBA Purchase Index reached its lowest level since 2004 (almost 200 p.). The decline in mortgage demand has pulled down new home construction, even though the index is […]]]>

Kwarkot

Investment thesis

With lower real incomes and higher mortgage costs, the US housing market has started to show the first signs of weakness. In particular, the MBA Purchase Index reached its lowest level since 2004 (almost 200 p.). The decline in mortgage demand has pulled down new home construction, even though the index is at a local high. We recommend reducing the share of investments in developers and using available capital to invest in Residential Real Estate Investment Trusts (“REITs”). Our absolute favorite is Invitation Homes Inc. (New York stock market :NYSE: INVH) due to its extensive investment program, which will help fill the rental housing deficit in the United States

The first signs of weakness in the real estate market

Real household income continues to decline for the second consecutive quarter due to slowing economic activity and accelerating inflation across the country. Thus, according to FRED, at the end of 2Q 2022, real disposable income (income after tax) fell by 4.2% y/y.

Thus, according to FRED, at the end of 2Q 2022, real disposable income (income after tax) fell by 4.2% y/y.

Fred

In the wake of lower incomes, consumers are becoming cautious about buying durable goods due to the recession expected in 4Q 2022-1Q 2023 in the United States. Thus, according to Investing, the growth rate of durable goods orders amounted to zero on a monthly basis against expectations of a rise of 0.6% m/m.

In the wake of lower incomes, consumers are becoming cautious about buying durable goods due to the recession expected in 4Q 2022-1Q 2023 in the United States.  Thus, according to Investing, the growth rate of durable goods orders settled at zero on a monthly basis against expectations of a rise of 0.6% m/m.

Invest

Residential housing is no exception. The first weakness is demonstrated by the mortgage market. According to Investing, the mortgage index approached the level of 200 points, which is the lowest value since the drop caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Residential housing is no exception.  The first weakness is demonstrated by the mortgage market.  According to Investing, the mortgage index approached the level of 200 points, which is the lowest value since the drop caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Invest

As we have already reported, the mortgage market is cooling following higher rates. Typically, 30-year mortgage rates track 10-year bond yields in the United States, according to FRED, because the average life of mortgages can reach 10 years (consumers pay off the mortgage or refinance it at a lower interest rate). The average spread is around 150 bp and extends up to 250 bp in times of crisis.

The average spread is around 150 bp and extends up to 250 bp in times of crisis.

Fred

It should be noted that according to the futures curve, the average US Fed rate through 2025 is expected to be around 3.4%, and the “spread” between the Fed rate and mortgage rates at 30 years, according to FRED, is 250 bps outside of crisis periods and approaches almost zero in the face of recession. In other words, US 10-year bond yields will remain at 3% for a long time. The average mortgage rate is expected to exceed 6% as early as the second half of 2023. Sales of mortgage bonds aimed at reducing the Fed’s balance sheet are also having an impact on the rise in yields.

It should be noted that according to the futures curve, the average US Fed rate through 2025 should be around 3.4%,

Atlanta FRB

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Fred

Betting on REITs is more attractive

According to Bloomberg, in May the average payment reached the average rental rate. Buying real estate used to be more profitable due to low rates, but those days are over.

According to Bloomberg, in May the average mortgage payment reached the average rental rate.  Buying real estate used to be more profitable due to low rates, but those days are over.

Bloomberg

Despite the increase in housing stock, it remains below 1 million units, which will support prices. Combined with rising rates and face value of properties, the average mortgage payment is expected to increase further.

Despite the increase in housing stock, it remains below 1 million units, which will support prices.

Fred

Households resorted to rental real estate due to the inaccessibility of housing. According to FRED, in 2Q 2022, the average rental vacancy rate reached its lowest level in 30 years.

Higher rental rates are now supported by strong demand, and then high house prices in 2021 will kick in. Typically, rental rates react to property value with a 12-18 month lag, according to FED Dallas. In other words, we think the bet on residential REITs is reasonable, as we expect the US housing market to come under pressure over the medium term.

According to FRED, in 2Q 2022, the average rental vacancy rate reached its lowest level in 30 years.

Fred

Higher rental rates are now supported by strong demand, and then high house prices in 2021 will come into play. Typically, rental rates react to property value with a 12-18 month lag

FED Dallas

REITs during the recession

REITs are expected to perform poorly during periods of tight monetary policy, as the attractiveness of the dividend yield is reduced due to higher risk-free rates. However, according to Nareit, REITs generally increase rental rates faster in times of high inflation, supporting the growth rate of FFOs. Despite commonly accepted dogma, according to Nareit, REITs have shown a positive return in 85% of observations during periods of rising rates.

REITs are expected to perform poorly during periods of tight monetary policy, as the attractiveness of the dividend yield is reduced due to higher risk-free rates.  However, according to Nareit, REITs generally increase rental rates faster in times of high inflation, supporting the growth rate of FFOs.

Nareit

The recession hit the dynamics of rental rates the hardest for office real estate, the least hard – for residential real estate. For example, according to SparrowHawk, during the 2008 crisis, rental housing payments fell to 5% year-on-year but recovered faster than the market.

The recession hit the dynamics of rental rates the hardest for office real estate, the least hard - for residential real estate.  Thus, according to SparrowHawk, during the 2008 crisis, rental payments fell to 5% y/y, but recovered faster than the market.

Sparrowhawk

Evaluation

We maintain our 2022 EBITDA guidance at $1,322 million (+13% YoY) and have revised the 2023 guidance by $1,470 million (+11% YoY) to $1,498 million (+13% over one year). We also revised the 2022 FFO guidance from $957m (+21%y/y) to $966m (+22%y/y) and the 2023 guidance from $1098m (+15%y/y). a) $1,141 million (+18% y/y) due to the acceleration of housing shift from the non-comparable property segment to the comparable property segment over the valuation horizon (particularly in 2023) .

We maintain our 2022 EBITDA guidance at $1,322 million (+13% YoY) and have revised the 2023 guidance by $1,470 million (+11% YoY) to $1,498 million (+13% over one year).  We also revised the 2022 FFO guidance from $957m (+21%y/y) to $966m (+22%y/y) and the 2023 guidance from $1098m (+15%y/y). a) $1,141 million (+18% y/y) due to the acceleration of housing shift from the non-comparable property segment to the comparable property segment over the valuation horizon (particularly in 2023) .

investment hero

Based on the new assumptions, we maintain our BUY stock rating. The target price is $52. Up – 33%. Our valuation of the company is based on EV/EBITDAre and EV/FFO.

Invitation Homes Inc. is one of the more attractive REITs, with an extensive investment program that sets it apart from the closest competitors. Right now, rental real estate investment funds are all the rage due to the high demand for rental housing due to exorbitant new housing prices.

Invitation Homes is one of the most attractive REITs with an extensive investment program that sets it apart from the closest competitors.  Right now, rental real estate investment funds are all the rage due to the high demand for rental housing due to exorbitant new housing prices.

investment hero

Key factors driving stock growth over the next 12 months:

  • Preservation of high growth in rental rates at the expense of unaffordable housing.
  • Consolidation of the rental housing market through the acceleration of property purchases and the possible acquisition of competitors.

Risks:

  • Sharp slowdown in the growth rate of household income in the United States. They will have to look for cheaper rental accommodation.
  • Downward revision of the size of housing investment plans.

Conclusion

The U.S. housing market is off the news as demand for real estate declines across the country amid accelerating mortgage rates and falling household incomes. We believe that betting on the real estate market through REITs remains relevant due to the ever-increasing demand for rental accommodation caused by the inaccessibility of owned units and the shortage of vacant rental units.

We also think INVH shares are attractive to buy now due to rising prices and the current value of the property included in future rental rates. We recommend keeping an eye on statistical data (FRED, Zillow and Redfin).

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